Global cases of Parkinson’s predicted to rise to 25 million by 2050

The number of people living with Parkinson’s by 2050 could more than double compared to numbers in 2021, according to a study published by the British Medical Journal (BMJ).

Parkinson’s is the fastest growing neurological condition, but there’s still a lot we don’t know about its causes. There’s also a big gap in our knowledge about how global healthcare systems, race and ethnicity, and environment might affect the prevalence of Parkinson’s.

In this research, the team studied information from over 195 countries, to build a picture of the number of cases of Parkinson’s in 2050, and the factors that might be contributing to this.

How did the researchers predict this number?

Researchers used information available from a database called the Global Burden of Disease Study to look at the trends of people being diagnosed with Parkinson’s in different countries. They used these numbers to predict what might happen in the future, based on what we know now.

The main reason suggested for this rise in the number of people living with Parkinson’s was age. By 2050, more people worldwide will be living longer. Age is already known to be the biggest risk factor for Parkinson’s.

Different countries will have varying levels of an ageing population. So not every country included in the study saw the same rate of increase in Parkinson’s. In Europe, the rate of increase in cases of Parkinson’s was much lower than in other places, due to slowing of the population ageing overall. However the most significant increase in the number of people being diagnosed with Parkinson’s was predicted for western Sub-Saharan Africa, where people are generally living longer than before.

The study predicted that the number of people over 80 being diagnosed with Parkinson’s will increase more than in any other age category. It also suggested that the cases in men would increase more than the cases in women, leading to a bigger gap in incidence between the sexes.

Read the full results on the BMJ website.

What does this mean?

This study is important because it helps demonstrate how much of an impact Parkinson’s might have in the future. If people are living longer and more likely to be diagnosed, we need better systems in place in order to be able to support and care for people living with the condition worldwide.

The study also presents an interesting picture globally. As most of our understanding of Parkinson’s comes from research that involves people from white, European backgrounds, there’s even more need to make sure that research is including everyone so we can build a complete picture of the condition, and how to treat it.

It’s important to note that it wasn’t possible to get the same information from every country included. And those countries may vary in how they define and diagnose Parkinson’s. This means that there could be some important gaps which are not being reflected in the results. The study also only considered age and sex, meaning that information on things such as environment and other health issues were not considered.

Professor David Dexter, Director of Research, said: "Prevalence of Parkinson’s continues to increase globally, and this study looks at the impact of age - the largest known risk factor. It’s particularly interesting to see a slower anticipated rise in Europe due to overall population age.  

"We still don’t know for certain what causes Parkinson’s, how to diagnose it definitively, or how we can stop, slow or reverse its progress through new treatments. Studies like this help make the case for more research to understand what geographical, genetic and lifestyle factors aside from age contribute and why Parkinson’s is a growing condition.

"Until we find a cure, it’s vital that people with Parkinson’s, regardless of their location, socioeconomic group or race, have access to research, information and support that enables them to live well with the condition."